An investigation into the feasibility of constructing a mathematical model of ship safety : a thesis in partial fulfilment for the degree of Master of Science in Mathematics at Massey University

This thesis investigates the feasibility of developing a mathematical model to provide quantitative measures of total ship safety. Safety is an intuitive concept and is a subset of economic utility. There is economic pressure to transport goods at minimum cost and, without regulation, the frequency of shipping casualties could be unacceptably high. Mathematical methods associated with elements that influence ship safety are reviewed. Techniques for analysing ships' structures, stability, motions and engineering reliability are well established, but those for assessing the effect of human involvement, and operational and organisational influences on safety are less developed Data are available for winds, waves, currents and tidal movements, and their variability suggests that probabilistic models are appropriate Given the complexity of the international shipping industry, a simple computer model is developed in which 50 ships serve four ports. This allows safety to be assessed when input variables are adjusted. Obstacles to developing a mathematical model of ship safety are identified, and it is concluded that the feasibility of such a model depends on its required inclusiveness and utility

Governing the governors : a case study of college governance in English further education

This paper addresses the nature of governors in the governance of further education colleges in an English context (1). It explores the complex relationship between governors (people/agency), government (policy/structure) and governance (practice), in a college environment. While recent research has focused on the governance of schooling and higher education there has been little attention paid to the role of governors in the lifelong learning sector. The objective of the paper is to contribute to the debate about the purpose of college governance at a time when the Learning and Skills Council (LSC) commissioning era ends, and new government bodies responsible for further education and training, including local authorities, arrive. The paper analyses the nature of FE governance through the perspectives and experiences of governors, as colleges respond to calls from government for greater improvement and accountability in the sector (LSIS, 2009a). What constitutes creative governance is complex and controversial in the wider framework of regulation and public policy reform (Stoker, 1997; Seddon, 2008). As with other tricky concepts such as leadership, professionalism and learning, college governance is best defined in the contexts, cultures and situations in which it is located. College governance does not operate in a vacuum. It involves governors, chairs, principals, professionals, senior managers, clerks, community, business and wider agencies, including external audit and inspection regimes. Governance also acts as a prism through which national education and training reforms are mediated, at local level. While governing bodies are traditionally associated with the business of FE - steering, setting the tone and style, dealing with finance, funding, audit and procedural matters – they are increasingly being challenged to be more creative and responsive to the wider society. Drawing on a recent case study of six colleges, involving governors and key policy stakeholders, this paper explores FE governance in a fast changing policy environment

Crop Updates 2003 - Geraldton

This session covers twenty eight papers from different authors Seasonal Outlook: What is in store for 2003, David Stephens, Department of Agriculture Examining The Management Options For Wheat Crops In The Coming Season, James Fisher, Department of Agriculture GMO’s – what do they offer? Ian Edwards, Grain Bio Tech Australia Pty Ltd The Big Gamble – Wheat prices for 2003, Dennis Wise, Profarmer Market outlook for other grains, Andrew Young, General Manager Agricorp Stripe rust – where to now for the WA wheat industry? Robert Loughman, Ciara Beard and Greg Shea, Department of Agriculture Baudin and Hamlin – new generation of malting barley developed in Western Australia, Blakely Paynter, Roslyn Jettner and Kevin Young, Department of Agriculture DBM in Canola, Kevin Walden, Department of Agriculture The latest on Lupin diseases, Geoff Thomas, Department of Agriculture Wheat variety performance in 2002 compared to the long term, Robin Wilson, Iain Barclay, Robyn McLean, Robert Loughman, Jenny Garlinge, Bill Lambe, Neil Venn and Peter Clarke, Department of Agriculture Do wide rows drought proof lupins on red loam? Martin Harries, Bob French, Wayne Parker and Murray Blyth, Department of Agriculture Do wide rows drought proof lupins on a sandy loam? Martin Harries, Bob French, Wayne Parker and Murray Blyth, Department of Agriculture Profit Proving Precision Agriculture, Peter Norris, Agronomy For Profit, Greg Lyle, CSIRO Land and Water, Yuna Farm Improvement Group Annual ryegrass seedbanks: the good, the bad, and the ugly, Kathryn Steadman, University of Western Australia, Amander Ellery, CSIRO Plant Industry, Sally C Peltzer, Department of Agriculture Wheat management packages for low rainfall areas, Kari-Lee Falconer, Department of Agriculture Ground water 1. Atrazine, Russell Speed, Department of Agriculture Groundwater 2. Current Trends, Russell Speed, Department of Agriculture Herbicide tolerance of wheat, lupins and pastures, Terry Piper and Harmohinder Dhammu, Department of Agriculture Farming with Tramlines, Bindi Webb, Paul Blackwell, Department of Agriculture, Phil Logue, Binnu, Nigel Moffat, Geraldton, Rohan Ford, Binnu, Miles Obst, Mingenew, The role of green manure crops in renovating poor performing paddocks: What’s it worth? Frances Hoyle, Leanne Schulz and Judith Devenish Department of Agriculture The looming threat of wild radish, Peter Newman, Department of Agriculture Does one ‘size’ fit all? Grant Morrow, Syngenta Crop Protection Climate Forecasts on the Internet, Ian Foster and David Stephens, Department of Agriculture Moisture delving = more reliable lupin establishment, Paul Blackwell, and Wayne Parker, Department of Agriculture Tramline Designs for better Weed control and Wheat value from non-spraying tramlines in a dry season, Paul Blackwell, Bindi Webb and Darshan Sharma, Department of Agriculture Biserrula Grazing Trial, Marnie Thomas, Department of Agriculture Performance of IT and TT canola varieties in the medium and high rainfall agzones of W.A., 2001-02, Graham Walton, Hasan Zaheer and Paul Carmody, Department of Agriculture Rapid Catchment Appraisal in Northern Agricultural Region, Mike Clarke, Paul Raper, Department of Agricultur

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

A Roadmap for HEP Software and Computing R&D for the 2020s

Particle physics has an ambitious and broad experimental programme for the coming decades. This programme requires large investments in detector hardware, either to build new facilities and experiments, or to upgrade existing ones. Similarly, it requires commensurate investment in the R&D of software to acquire, manage, process, and analyse the shear amounts of data to be recorded. In planning for the HL-LHC in particular, it is critical that all of the collaborating stakeholders agree on the software goals and priorities, and that the efforts complement each other. In this spirit, this white paper describes the R&D activities required to prepare for this software upgrade.Peer reviewe

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same regio

A large-scale genome-wide association study meta-analysis of cannabis use disorder

Summary Background Variation in liability to cannabis use disorder has a strong genetic component (estimated twin and family heritability about 50–70%) and is associated with negative outcomes, including increased risk of psychopathology. The aim of the study was to conduct a large genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify novel genetic variants associated with cannabis use disorder. Methods To conduct this GWAS meta-analysis of cannabis use disorder and identify associations with genetic loci, we used samples from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium Substance Use Disorders working group, iPSYCH, and deCODE (20 916 case samples, 363 116 control samples in total), contrasting cannabis use disorder cases with controls. To examine the genetic overlap between cannabis use disorder and 22 traits of interest (chosen because of previously published phenotypic correlations [eg, psychiatric disorders] or hypothesised associations [eg, chronotype] with cannabis use disorder), we used linkage disequilibrium score regression to calculate genetic correlations. Findings We identified two genome-wide significant loci: a novel chromosome 7 locus (FOXP2, lead single-nucleotide polymorphism [SNP] rs7783012; odds ratio [OR] 1·11, 95% CI 1·07–1·15, p=1·84 × 10−9) and the previously identified chromosome 8 locus (near CHRNA2 and EPHX2, lead SNP rs4732724; OR 0·89, 95% CI 0·86–0·93, p=6·46 × 10−9). Cannabis use disorder and cannabis use were genetically correlated (rg 0·50, p=1·50 × 10−21), but they showed significantly different genetic correlations with 12 of the 22 traits we tested, suggesting at least partially different genetic underpinnings of cannabis use and cannabis use disorder. Cannabis use disorder was positively genetically correlated with other psychopathology, including ADHD, major depression, and schizophrenia. Interpretation These findings support the theory that cannabis use disorder has shared genetic liability with other psychopathology, and there is a distinction between genetic liability to cannabis use and cannabis use disorder. Funding National Institute of Mental Health; National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism; National Institute on Drug Abuse; Center for Genomics and Personalized Medicine and the Centre for Integrative Sequencing; The European Commission, Horizon 2020; National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; Health Research Council of New Zealand; National Institute on Aging; Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium; UK Research and Innovation Medical Research Council (UKRI MRC); The Brain & Behavior Research Foundation; National Institute on Deafness and Other Communication Disorders; Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA); National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering; National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Australia; Tobacco-Related Disease Research Program of the University of California; Families for Borderline Personality Disorder Research (Beth and Rob Elliott) 2018 NARSAD Young Investigator Grant; The National Child Health Research Foundation (Cure Kids); The Canterbury Medical Research Foundation; The New Zealand Lottery Grants Board; The University of Otago; The Carney Centre for Pharmacogenomics; The James Hume Bequest Fund; National Institutes of Health: Genes, Environment and Health Initiative; National Institutes of Health; National Cancer Institute; The William T Grant Foundation; Australian Research Council; The Virginia Tobacco Settlement Foundation; The VISN 1 and VISN 4 Mental Illness Research, Education, and Clinical Centers of the US Department of Veterans Affairs; The 5th Framework Programme (FP-5) GenomEUtwin Project; The Lundbeck Foundation; NIH-funded Shared Instrumentation Grant S10RR025141; Clinical Translational Sciences Award grants; National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; National Institute of General Medical Sciences.Peer reviewe

Effects of antiplatelet therapy after stroke due to intracerebral haemorrhage (RESTART): a randomised, open-label trial

Background: Antiplatelet therapy reduces the risk of major vascular events for people with occlusive vascular disease, although it might increase the risk of intracranial haemorrhage. Patients surviving the commonest subtype of intracranial haemorrhage, intracerebral haemorrhage, are at risk of both haemorrhagic and occlusive vascular events, but whether antiplatelet therapy can be used safely is unclear. We aimed to estimate the relative and absolute effects of antiplatelet therapy on recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage and whether this risk might exceed any reduction of occlusive vascular events. Methods: The REstart or STop Antithrombotics Randomised Trial (RESTART) was a prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded endpoint, parallel-group trial at 122 hospitals in the UK. We recruited adults (≥18 years) who were taking antithrombotic (antiplatelet or anticoagulant) therapy for the prevention of occlusive vascular disease when they developed intracerebral haemorrhage, discontinued antithrombotic therapy, and survived for 24 h. Computerised randomisation incorporating minimisation allocated participants (1:1) to start or avoid antiplatelet therapy. We followed participants for the primary outcome (recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage) for up to 5 years. We analysed data from all randomised participants using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusted for minimisation covariates. This trial is registered with ISRCTN (number ISRCTN71907627). Findings: Between May 22, 2013, and May 31, 2018, 537 participants were recruited a median of 76 days (IQR 29–146) after intracerebral haemorrhage onset: 268 were assigned to start and 269 (one withdrew) to avoid antiplatelet therapy. Participants were followed for a median of 2·0 years (IQR [1·0– 3·0]; completeness 99·3%). 12 (4%) of 268 participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy had recurrence of intracerebral haemorrhage compared with 23 (9%) of 268 participants allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (adjusted hazard ratio 0·51 [95% CI 0·25–1·03]; p=0·060). 18 (7%) participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy experienced major haemorrhagic events compared with 25 (9%) participants allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (0·71 [0·39–1·30]; p=0·27), and 39 [15%] participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy had major occlusive vascular events compared with 38 [14%] allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (1·02 [0·65–1·60]; p=0·92). Interpretation: These results exclude all but a very modest increase in the risk of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage with antiplatelet therapy for patients on antithrombotic therapy for the prevention of occlusive vascular disease when they developed intracerebral haemorrhage. The risk of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage is probably too small to exceed the established benefits of antiplatelet therapy for secondary prevention